All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Valley Kickoff |
John Cleland Early Bird (4k) |
Marion County |
Brownsburg Invitational |
Brown County Eagle Classic |
Ben Davis Invitational |
Flashrock Invitational |
Metro Interscholastic Conference |
XC Town Twilight |
North Central JV |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/17 |
8/23 |
8/30 |
9/6 |
9/13 |
9/13 |
9/20 |
9/27 |
10/4 |
10/4 |
| Team Rating |
292 | |
277 |
364 |
277 |
352 |
280 |
688 |
346 |
313 |
396 |
834 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
277 |
284 |
277 |
295 |
252 |
292 |
346 |
313 |
290 |
292 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Valley Kickoff |
John Cleland Early Bird (4k) |
Marion County |
Brownsburg Invitational |
Brown County Eagle Classic |
Ben Davis Invitational |
Flashrock Invitational |
Metro Interscholastic Conference |
XC Town Twilight |
North Central JV |
|---|
| 12 |
Kelsey Rehmel |
12 |
18:25 |
18:28 |
18:24 |
|
18:49 |
18:47 |
17:57 |
|
18:13 |
19:00 |
|
|
| 92 |
Aislinn Biesecker |
10 |
19:43 |
19:50 |
19:37 |
20:19 |
19:26 |
19:30 |
19:35 |
|
19:35 |
19:44 |
19:55 |
|
| 96 |
Elizabeth Rocchio |
12 |
19:44 |
19:14 |
20:37 |
19:25 |
19:31 |
|
19:48 |
|
21:03 |
19:46 |
19:42 |
|
| 231 |
Valerie Fernhaber |
11 |
20:34 |
20:24 |
20:09 |
20:38 |
20:23 |
20:41 |
|
20:34 |
20:25 |
20:39 |
21:04 |
|
| 282 |
Isabella Ewer |
10 |
20:48 |
20:58 |
20:59 |
20:26 |
20:53 |
20:45 |
20:10 |
|
21:08 |
21:04 |
20:35 |
|
| 319 |
Ruby Brown |
11 |
20:58 |
20:02 |
21:25 |
20:37 |
21:08 |
20:57 |
|
21:20 |
20:57 |
20:50 |
20:40 |
|
| 423 |
Tatum Houle |
12 |
21:23 |
21:27 |
20:13 |
21:13 |
|
21:39 |
21:03 |
|
21:23 |
21:40 |
21:43 |
|
| 426 |
Betty Gebreananya |
11 |
21:23 |
22:00 |
20:52 |
20:53 |
21:15 |
21:47 |
21:15 |
|
21:01 |
21:51 |
22:28 |
|
| 440 |
Eleanor Kirchhoff |
10 |
21:26 |
21:29 |
24:12 |
21:20 |
|
21:03 |
|
21:32 |
23:37 |
25:24 |
21:21 |
21:42 |
| 458 |
Adyme Welderufael |
9 |
21:30 |
|
21:02 |
21:47 |
21:43 |
21:43 |
21:17 |
|
21:41 |
21:18 |
21:09 |
|
| 497 |
Charlotte Mallon |
12 |
21:35 |
22:09 |
23:15 |
22:04 |
|
|
21:12 |
|
21:49 |
21:13 |
21:21 |
|
| 643 |
Marin Matthews |
9 |
21:59 |
|
23:37 |
21:57 |
22:00 |
22:24 |
21:25 |
|
22:03 |
22:15 |
21:58 |
21:27 |
| 644 |
Adrienne Spacey |
10 |
21:59 |
21:37 |
21:28 |
21:47 |
|
22:12 |
|
21:48 |
22:11 |
22:19 |
21:50 |
22:14 |
| 705 |
Megan Smith |
10 |
22:08 |
21:55 |
|
21:58 |
|
22:34 |
|
22:23 |
21:57 |
21:42 |
|
22:09 |
| 876 |
Julia Eynon |
12 |
22:35 |
22:45 |
22:26 |
23:13 |
|
23:06 |
22:32 |
|
22:22 |
22:36 |
22:07 |
22:10 |
| 906 |
Stella Andrews |
9 |
22:40 |
|
22:27 |
22:44 |
22:46 |
22:37 |
|
21:59 |
23:02 |
22:54 |
|
22:27 |
| 1,022 |
Lucy Phillips |
11 |
23:01 |
22:23 |
|
23:04 |
|
|
|
23:01 |
23:58 |
22:31 |
|
22:52 |
| 1,140 |
Larkin Phillips |
9 |
23:14 |
|
23:36 |
22:59 |
23:04 |
22:47 |
|
23:15 |
23:11 |
23:53 |
|
|
| 1,200 |
Annabell Jameson |
10 |
23:22 |
22:49 |
|
22:11 |
|
23:55 |
|
22:32 |
|
24:00 |
|
24:07 |
| 1,230 |
Mia Hurrle |
11 |
23:26 |
|
|
|
|
24:10 |
|
23:32 |
23:16 |
|
|
22:44 |
| 1,232 |
Stella Sermersheim |
10 |
23:26 |
21:46 |
23:49 |
23:44 |
|
23:39 |
|
23:25 |
23:04 |
23:06 |
|
|
|
Lyra Schmid |
9 |
23:42 |
|
|
23:34 |
23:20 |
24:43 |
|
23:50 |
23:50 |
23:07 |
|
|
|
Georgia Colmen |
11 |
23:42 |
22:33 |
|
23:15 |
|
23:47 |
|
24:45 |
|
|
|
|
|
Emma Bell |
9 |
23:43 |
|
23:57 |
23:43 |
23:32 |
23:36 |
|
23:57 |
|
23:15 |
|
23:46 |
|
Sophia Rodeheffer |
9 |
23:43 |
|
|
23:51 |
23:40 |
24:07 |
|
23:20 |
23:35 |
23:11 |
|
24:09 |
|
Eliana Downey |
10 |
24:18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
23:05 |
|
25:39 |
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
81.5% |
11.9 |
344 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
1.0 |
2.4 |
4.7 |
8.1 |
10.5 |
12.2 |
11.1 |
8.5 |
6.9 |
5.6 |
3.5 |
2.7 |
1.8 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
4.5 |
145 |
|
4.4 |
15.8 |
28.0 |
33.2 |
13.7 |
4.3 |
0.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
3.7 |
84 |
|
4.1 |
20.3 |
75.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Kelsey Rehmel |
100% |
14.4 |
|
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
3.1 |
3.8 |
4.6 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
6.2 |
6.5 |
6.0 |
5.6 |
6.1 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Aislinn Biesecker |
98.1% |
89.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
89.8% |
96.8% |
| Elizabeth Rocchio |
97.3% |
89.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
85.4% |
96.0% |
| Valerie Fernhaber |
81.5% |
175.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
7.3% |
| Isabella Ewer |
81.5% |
196.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
1.2% |
| Ruby Brown |
81.5% |
207.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.2% |
| Tatum Houle |
81.5% |
228.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Kelsey Rehmel |
100% |
4.8 |
3.1 |
5.2 |
8.0 |
14.0 |
26.2 |
18.8 |
11.1 |
6.7 |
3.7 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Aislinn Biesecker |
100% |
22.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
3.6 |
4.4 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
6.6 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
|
100.0% |
| Elizabeth Rocchio |
100% |
23.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
5.5 |
6.1 |
6.6 |
6.3 |
6.1 |
6.6 |
6.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Valerie Fernhaber |
100% |
47.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Isabella Ewer |
100% |
56.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Ruby Brown |
100% |
62.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Tatum Houle |
100% |
80.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Kelsey Rehmel |
4.2 |
3.7 |
5.2 |
8.9 |
18.2 |
56.8 |
5.9 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Aislinn Biesecker |
13.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
4.4 |
7.0 |
8.3 |
10.2 |
11.7 |
11.5 |
10.2 |
9.4 |
7.7 |
6.2 |
4.8 |
2.8 |
1.7 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
| Elizabeth Rocchio |
13.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.3 |
0.6 |
2.3 |
3.6 |
6.1 |
8.4 |
10.2 |
10.7 |
10.8 |
11.0 |
10.1 |
8.7 |
6.6 |
4.0 |
2.9 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
| Valerie Fernhaber |
24.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
2.0 |
3.7 |
5.0 |
7.3 |
11.6 |
13.6 |
15.3 |
| Isabella Ewer |
26.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
3.6 |
5.6 |
9.7 |
| Ruby Brown |
28.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
3.7 |
| Tatum Houle |
33.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.0 |
|
